Hispanic Voters Now Equally Divided between Republicans and Democrats

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The Democrats used to take Hispanic voters for granted but the Trump-led GOP has managed to change that. (Flick)

With Hispanic and Latino Americans being the second fastest-growing ethnic group in the United States after Asian Americans, their electoral weight has not only been increasing, but is considered decisive for the future of political parties.

The GOP previously hoped Hispanics would be “natural” Republican voters, as they are predominantly Catholic and presumably favor conservative and family values. Yet, up until now, the Hispanic vote has been going primarily to the Democrats.

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It wasn’t until President Trump entered the political stage in 2016 that the Republican Party started making some major inroads into the Hispanic and Latino demographics. Cuban Americans in Florida, as well as Venezuelan Americans and some other subgroups, began voting overwhelmingly for Trump.

GOP Gaining Traction Among Hispanics

This gradual shift that began about five years ago increasingly worried Democrat strategists; the Democrat Party used to take the votes of the Latino community for granted.

It now turns out, however, that a pro-Trump Republican Party may have managed to make truly tangible gains among Hispanic American voters; for the first time, the key demographic seems to be evenly split between the two parties.

This is indicated by the results of a new opinion poll by The Wall Street Journal published on Wednesday.

A pro-Republican shift among the Hispanic demographic has materialized over the past 5 years. (Flickr)

It should really be deemed a new cause of concern for the Democrats. They have recognized the role the Hispanic vote played in Democrats’ congressional 2020 election defeats in Texas and Florida.

The Wall Street Journal poll shows if the 2024 president vote was held now, a total of 44% of the Hispanic and Latino voters would vote for Joe Biden, but roughly as many would support Donald Trump.

The survey’s results with respect to voting for Congress found an even more robustly even split, with both the GOP and the Democrat Party getting the support of 37% of Hispanics.

Major Shift from 2020 Presidential Election

This latest poll confirms the findings of previous surveys that both the Republican Party and President Trump enjoy greater support among Hispanic men, while Hispanic women still tend to prefer the Democrat Party.

The Wall Street Journal points out if the trend demonstrated by these figures holds, that will be a marked shift from the preferences in the 2020 election, in which 63% of the Hispanic and Latino vote went to Joe Biden vs. 37% for Donald Trump.

Polls of Hispanic voters have sometimes been criticized over small samples sizes, and a tendency to skew the samples towards more affluent, English-speaking Hispanics.

According to the 2020 US census, Hispanic and Latino Americans are 62 million; this means Hispanic and Latino Americans are making up 18.7% of the population. It should be interesting to see how this continues to play out.