The hellish war in Ukraine is going to be over by the beginning of May at the latest, according to a senior Ukrainian government official with insider knowledge of the situation.
Two Scenarios of War Ending by May or Sooner
As of Tuesday morning, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia had 13,500 of its troops killed and lost 81 warplanes, 95 helicopters, 404 tanks, 640 other vehicles, and 1,279 armored personnel carriers.
There have been various reports that Russia’s stockpiles of certain types of ammunition are becoming exhausted. Putin’s war machine is unable to restock them, or at least not quickly enough.
The Russians running low on key ammo and other crucial military resources will be a major factor in ending the war by early May, according to Oleksiy Arestovich, an advisor to the chief of staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Arestovich was even bolder in his forecast. He put forth two scenarios for the course of the war, a shorter one and a longer one, as cited by the BBC.
In the shorter scenario, the Ukrainians and the Russians will strike a peace deal “within a week or two” that will provide for the total pullout of Putin’s troops.
According to Arestovich’s longer scenario, Putin’s regime is going to try to “scrape something together” to keep fighting to subdue the Ukrainians, such as bringing in large numbers of Syrian Arab mercenaries, a process that has already started.
#Ukraine: The Russian army abandoned a fully-loaded 9P149 "Shturm-S" motorized anti-tank vehicle (and a pair of boots). Location is unknown. pic.twitter.com/KjaPmjPRoK
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 15, 2022
#Ukraine: Ukrainian artillery completely destroyed three T-72 tanks, belonging to the Russian army, in #Luhansk Oblast. As claimed, a BMP-3 IFV was damaged too. pic.twitter.com/cCe45Gzqqx
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 15, 2022
❗️In #Kharkiv, #Russian troops began shelling the city right at the time of the evacuation of people pic.twitter.com/Xg280BaGnH
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 15, 2022
Ukrainian Force Bound to Be Great Than Russia in Two Weeks
Numerous experts are actually forecasting the more Putin loses, the more of a dead-ender he will become.
Many believe backing down is not an option for his regime; he may escalate by using tactical nuclear weapons, biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine.
Putin may even be prepared to launch a nuclear war against the United States and NATO that will end mankind.
According to sources from the UK Ministry of Defense cited by The Daily Mail, Putin’s forces may be able to sustain their “full fighting capacity” for between 10 and 14 days, at most.
Once their fighting capacity declines, the Russians will be struggling to hold onto the meager swaths of Ukrainian territory they have managed to conquer already at the cost of great effort and losses.
The UK government sources also pointed out in many spots, Putin’s advance has stopped as the Russians are running low on manpower.
For the time being, it remains unpredictable whether Putin would take such a step or commit any other atrocity, such as the use of weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine.
What remains certain is that at present, the Russian military in Ukraine is increasingly in trouble; if all things remain equal, Moscow is increasingly likely to lose militarily and not just politically.
#Ukraine: Ukrainian forces destroyed a BMP-2 and a T-72 variant of the Russian army in #Kyiv Oblast, possibly in an ambush. pic.twitter.com/Qlm8OCgkKs
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 14, 2022
❗️More than three million refugees have left #Ukraine since the beginning of the war, AFP reports, citing UN data. pic.twitter.com/labRvVph6s
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 15, 2022
#Kharkiv was heavily shelled this night. It is the second most populous city in #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/MUoj0xPI1z
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 15, 2022